Goma and its surroundings calmed down for the weekend. There were reports of some light gunfire on Saturday north west of Goma- the front is still between Kanyaruchina and the centre of Kibati- but Wednesday remains the day that has seen the heaviest fighting in the new clashes between the FARDC and the M23 so far. Flash-mobbing in the Kivus
Nonetheless, the city of Goma was hot on Thursday. With rumours flying around about Col. Mamadou being recalled to Kinshasa to be sent to Kisangani, the population of Goma went wild. There was a report from Thursday aired today on a local TV channel with an army wife screaming at the camera. It's a real pity there seems to be no link online- the footage gave a clear example of how angry people were. Mobs in Goma seem to form in a flash. This photo doesn't do it justice, but it's the crowd advancing on me before my driver explained (saving me from harm for the third time that day) that I do not in fact work for the UN:
I was particularly worried by the stone the guy in the middle is brandishing.
A few people I spoke to on Friday night expected fighting on Saturday but this too turned out to be a rumour (I sense a theme...) and there has been no fighting on Sunday. Goma too has calmed down. The government's declarations on radio seem to have done the trick and prevented further protests against the UN in Goma. A motard today said it was because "we don't work on Sundays". With breath stinking of whiskey, it wasn't clear he'd actually understood the question. This coming week will tell but through fairly prompt appearances in the media, the central government and the FARDC seem to be taking the (mis)information war in Goma seriously. Meanwhile, twitter is as busy as ever peddling (mis)information and websites continue to spread rumours- watch this space. Events on Thursday show that, in Goma, even imagined smoke, bouncing off enough motorbike mirrors can cause real fire.
What might we expect this coming week? Well, the troops seem to be at a standstill. Sources in the army say that they are waiting for orders from Kinshasa to attack. Of course, these could come at any moment, but Kinshasa might be waiting for the full deployment of the UN Intervention Brigade which should be complete in the coming 4-6 weeks. Or there might be a bit more to it...
"On est ensemble!"
President Kabila was in Brazzaville across the river from Kinshasa in neighbouring Republic of Congo on Friday and emphasised that discussions were ongoing in Kampala while insisting that the DRC would work together to manage the situation in the East. Without knowing where the pressure comes from, or what the motivation is, it sounds like the central government wishes to seek a political solution.
Kabila is in a precarious position in Kinshasa at the moment with a process of Concertation Nationale being pressured upon the President by the opposition and also the backing of the UN Security Council. The Concertation is effectively a mechanism politically to engage the opposition and civil society groups in DRC in a national dialogue "to consolidate national cohesion, to reinforce and to extend the authority of the State over all the national territory to end the cycles of violence in the East, to enjoin against all possible attempts at destabilisation of institutions and to accelerate the development of the country in peace and harmony" (my translation of this). The dialogue has been called for by the opposition following the disputed re-election of Kabila in 2011. Anti-Kabila feeling also bubbled over in Goma in the last week. The recent Brazzaville trip might be seen as heavy politicking to garner much needed popular support by playing the international head of state card.
What if the M23 attack this week? And why haven't they over the weekend? Estimates of the number of M23 fighters puts them between 1,500 and 2,500 soldiers and the FARDC are better organised and the units currently deployed are better trained than those that lost Goma in November (see the studious commando below...). It may be that they feel that they are in a weaker position militarily. While the battle lines are still drawn where they are - only around 10 km north of the airport in Goma -, the M23 might imagine they're in a better position to negotiate in Kampala.
The population in Goma is behind the idea of all out war. Militarily, the M23 seem to have been put on the back foot after Wednesday's heavy fighting. So why would Kabila not take a populist move that seems militarily viable? Why have the guns gone quiet on Goma's North-Western front? This week may be more about battles of wits in Kampala.